- 研究生: 黃惠君
- 論文名稱: 婚姻之路─影響東亞女性婚姻抉擇因素之探討
- 指導教授: 楊文山
- 關鍵字: 東亞女性、初婚時間、事件史分析、離散時間對數迴歸模型
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近幾十年來東亞國家初婚年齡穩定而顯著地攀升，尤其是女性晚婚情況更為明顯，爰此，本研究主要目的在於探討東亞國家女性初婚時間及進入婚姻機會之影響因素。本研究藉由2006年加入東亞社會調查題組合併而成的台灣社會變遷基本調查─「家庭組」問卷（Taiwan Social Change Survey，簡稱TSCS）與2006年以「家庭」為主題的第一次東亞社會調查（East Asian Social Survey，簡稱EASS）資料，運用有關問項分析影響東亞國家女性婚姻的抉擇因素。在研究方法上，透過事件史分析方法探究1945年至1989年出生之東亞國家女性婚姻風險及維持單身比率，並針對國別、出生世代及教育面向進一步觀察其進入婚姻時間之差異。除此之外，本研究運用離散時間對數迴歸模型方法，控制出生世代、出生排行、15歲前居住地、手足人數、父親教育程度及每一年齡狀況下，探討國別、教育、職業、性別角色態度、孝道觀念、奉養態度、家庭價值觀及婚姻態度變項對於進入婚姻機會的影響，藉以瞭解東亞國家女性初婚時間情況及影響因素。
實證結果指出，在生命表分析中，東亞國家女性在20歲以前進入婚姻的風險率約在0.08％到5.15％間，至25歲至32歲間的女性進入婚姻機會明顯提升，風險率攀升至20.34％至27.11％，然而，東亞國家女性過了40歲以後，進入婚姻的機會極速下降，到了觀察結束時存活累積比例約有1.7％的女性未進入婚姻。其次，中國女性進入婚姻之時間與整體趨勢早於其他國家，台灣女性則趨於晚婚，且有最高的存活累積比例；以出生世代來說，1964年以前出生的女性在初婚時間上相較於年輕者趨於早婚；在教育方面則顯示，教育程度越高的女性進入婚姻機會較高之年齡偏晚，且有較高的存活累積比例。另外，離散時間對數迴歸模型分析結果指出教育程度越高、職業性別角色態度越平等、奉養態度越正向積極、婚姻態度越現代之東亞國家女性進入婚姻機會較低。
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Abstract
The average age at first marriage of women in East Asian soceities has obviously risen since the past several decades. The purpose of this study is to explore average age at first marriage and determinants of first marriage of East Asian women in Taiwan, China, Korea and Japan. The 2006 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSCS) is combined with the family module of the East Asia Social Survey (EASS) dataset from China, Korea and Japan and used to analyze the determinants of age at first marriage of East Asian women. An Event History Analysis statistical model is developed to analyze women born between 1945 and 1989. In the analyses, I controlled birth cohort, sibling configuration, and residence of respondent before the age of 15, number of siblings, father’s education, respondent’s sex-role attitude, filial piety, attitudes toward parental support, family value and marriage attitude toward sharing household chores as determinants to entering marriage.
A life table analysis shows that the risk of first marriage of Taiwan, China, Korea and Japan women between age 20 to 24 is from 0.08% to 5.15%; from age 25 to 32, the risk of first marriage rises to 20.34%-27.11%. However, there are approximately 1.7% of women who remain single until 51 year old. The analysis indicates that Chinese women tend to marry in early age compared to women in other societies; nevertheless, Taiwan women, over all, are among the group that married the latest. According to birth cohort, the average age of first marriage of women born before 1964 is earlier compared to those born after 1965. Women with higher education above college level tend to marry late as compared to women of lower education stratum. The analysis of Discrete-time Logistic Regression model reveals that women with higher education, especially when it is above college level, tend to marry late as well as those who have an egalitarian sex-role attitude, show filial piety toward elderly parents and desire for husbands have an equal share of household chores.
