研究生：黃玉霞

論文名稱：生活不確定感對算命態度之影響

指導教授：郭文般

關鍵字：生活不確定感、算命態度、社會風險不確定感、人生定向不確定感、認知控制理路

本研究旨在探討生活不確定感對算命態度之影響。算命在台灣社會並未隨現代化與理性化而消失，反而持續存在於民眾日常生活之中。當個體面對社會環境變動、未來不可掌握或人生方向不明時，算命可能成為其尋求解釋、預測與安定感的一種方式。因此，本文將生活不確定感區分為「社會風險不確定感」與「人生定向不確定感」，並將算命態度區分為「算命功能態度」與「相信算命程度」，以檢視不同來源的不確定感是否會對算命態度產生不同影響。

在理論脈絡上，本文以現代社會的不確定性與風險感受為背景，結合認知控制理路與人生定向理路進行分析。前者強調個體在面對外在環境不可掌握時，可能透過算命尋求規律、預測與秩序感；後者則關注個體在面對人生空虛、不幸與缺乏方向時，是否會透過算命尋求解釋與安定。

資料來源為臺灣社會變遷基本調查2004年第四期第五次：宗教文化組（問卷二），原始完成樣本數為1,881人；經依表4-1至表4-4所需研究變項採整體剔除法（listwise deletion）處理遺漏值後，主要分析有效樣本數統一為1,792人。本文並採用描述統計、相關分析與階層迴歸分析檢驗研究假設。結果顯示，社會風險不確定感對算命功能態度具有正向且顯著的影響，對相信算命程度亦具有正向且顯著的影響，但其影響效果較弱；相較之下，人生定向不確定感在納入控制變項後，對兩種算命態度皆未呈現穩定影響。

整體而言，研究結果較支持認知控制理路，顯示算命態度較不是單純來自人生空虛或生命悲觀感受，而更容易受到外在社會風險與未來不可掌握感的影響。換言之，算命在現代社會中不宜僅被理解為傳統迷信或非理性行為，而應放在個體面對生活不確定、社會風險與控制感不足的脈絡中理解。

This study examines the influence of life uncertainty on attitudes toward fortune-telling. In Taiwanese society, fortune-telling has not disappeared with modernization and rationalization. Instead, it continues to exist in people’s everyday lives. When individuals face social changes, an unpredictable future, or an unclear direction in life, fortune-telling may become a way for them to seek explanations, predictions, and a sense of psychological stability. Therefore, this study divides life uncertainty into two dimensions: social risk uncertainty and life orientation uncertainty. It also divides attitudes toward fortune-telling into functional attitudes toward fortune-telling and belief in fortune-telling, in order to examine whether different sources of uncertainty have different effects on fortune-telling attitudes.

The theoretical framework of this study is based on uncertainty and risk perception in modern society. It further develops two explanatory approaches: the cognitive control approach and the life orientation approach. The cognitive control approach emphasizes that when individuals face an uncontrollable external environment, they may seek patterns, predictions, and a sense of order through fortune-telling. The life orientation approach focuses on whether individuals who experience emptiness, misfortune, or a lack of direction in life may turn to fortune-telling for explanations and stability.

The data used in this study are drawn from the 2004 Taiwan Social Change Survey, Phase 4, Wave 5: Religion Module. The original completed sample includes 1,881 cases; after applying listwise deletion to the variables used in Tables 4-1 to 4-4, the common analytical sample size is 1,792. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and hierarchical regression analysis were used to test the research hypotheses. The findings show that social risk uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on functional attitudes toward fortune-telling, and a weaker, but statistically significant positive effect on belief in fortune-telling. In contrast, after control variables are included, life orientation uncertainty does not show a stable effect on either dimension of attitudes toward fortune-telling.

Overall, the findings provide stronger support for the cognitive control approach. This suggests that attitudes toward fortune-telling are not simply caused by feelings of emptiness in life or pessimistic views of one’s life condition. Rather, in this study, they appear to be more strongly associated with external social risks and a sense that the future is difficult to control. In other words, fortune-telling in modern society should not be understood only as traditional superstition or irrational behavior. It should also be understood as one possible way individuals respond to life uncertainty, social risks, and a lack of control.